Run It Back

Sorry, Harrison.

The Lakers are hours from their biggest game in years. They enjoyed their first playoff game with an arena filled with fans in the LeBron James, Anthony Davis era. If they’re able to win tonight, the path ahead offers some very real possibilities, and not just this season.

Given where these Lakers are, and certainly in the context of what looked like yet another lost season, this group that has only been together a couple injury-plagued months has made an almost unimpeachable case to run things back this summer, no matter the costs — or temptations.

This summer, the Lakers will have decisions to make across the roster. Of their current rotation, only James, Davis and Jarred Vanderbilt hold guaranteed contracts. Malik Beasley and Mo Bamba are technically under contract next year, but both can be waived without a cap hit — they shouldn’t, but it’s an option.

(Interestingly, if both are waived, the Lakers could get really close to avoiding the tax BUT DON’T YOU DARE EVEN THINK ABOUT IT YOU MONSTERS.)

So that means all of Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schröder, Troy Brown Jr. and Lonnie Walker IV will be heading into negotiations of some sort this summer.

Reaves and Hachimura are in line for hefty raises if their level of play continues. Reaves¹ could fetch in the ballpark of $11 million per year and Hachimura, a legit three-and-d wing whose play elevates in the postseason? $17 million-plus feels like a real possibility here.

Russell is interesting because between him, Reaves and Hachimura, he’s been a pretty distant third in terms of consistent productivity, but he’s making $30 million this year and the Lakers simply cannot afford to let him walk outright. So at the very least, they’ll be looking to sign and trade him for someone in that price range.

Adding the figures together and just James, Davis, Vanderbilt, Reaves, Russell, Hachimura, Beasley and Bamba will cost just shy of $178 million. The cap is currently projected at $134 million and the luxury tax level is projected at $162 million.

So the Lakers will be looking at tax bill in the teens (not counting penalties) with at least six other roster spots left to fill.

And you know what? Seems totally reasonable. It isn’t my money obviously, but what the Lakers can’t afford to do is once again cheap out on a team capable of competing at the highest level. Put differently…

For starters, the Lakers will have playoff revenue to help lighten the financial blow. Given what we now know about the business side of things, this is a meaningful shot in the arm.

Secondly, if this group goes on any kind of a run here only to get broken up for financial reasons, I don’t know how the Lakers fan base can possibly trust the front office and ownership ever again. We saw the immediate reaction to losing Alex Caruso for nothing, let alone the longer-term impact on the team since. Climbing out of the hole as miraculously as they have only to potentially jump right back in would be pretty tough to get over anytime soon.

Just as important as this specific collection of guys is the general makeup of the roster. The Lakers pursuit and landing of a third star was an unmitigated disaster. Because they’re the Lakers, some opportunity to do that again is almost assuredly going to present itself this offseason.

We know how much Rob Pelinka likes star power. We know how much James would love to reunite with Kyrie Irving. Bradley Beal and Zach LaVine are also likely to see their names in rumors this summer too.

Please, Lakers, for the love of all things holy, do not head down that path again. You’d be ignoring all kinds of history if you repeated that mistake.

The 2020 title team was built on a fairly simple premise: Stellar role players whose games can be elevated by James and Davis’ greatness. That approach harkened back to the last time the Lakers won a championship, when Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol elevated a core of elite role players. And wouldn’t you know it, the three-peat was a similar makeup, as Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal were surrounded by guys who starred in their roles.

You’d have to go back to the Showtime Lakers to find the last time the three-star model worked out, and that’s an outlier scenario because the league was dumb enough to allow the Lakers to draft James Worthy.

Remember, a previous iteration of this team sat at 2-10. It was rock bottom. They rode things out a little and did slightly improve but the real steps forward occurred when Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverley and Kendrick Nunn were shipped out for this current combination of shooting, athleticism, length and, mostly important depth.

In a matter of a couple months (much of which taking place without James and even some time without Russell as well), they’ve gone from rock bottom to this opportunity they currently face. Win tonight and they’ll have a stranglehold in this series and very real path to the finals from there. Yes, it gets tougher and their work is just beginning in these playoffs, but the concept has been pretty thoroughly proven.

Sure, a lot is riding on the outcome of tonight’s game and those that came after, but that’s the point. You fight, scratch and claw for the opportunity to have the narrative jotted down, scratched out and re-written on a playoff-game by playoff-game basis. The moves made at the deadline gave them this opportunity. This summer, the Lakers have to give this group the chance at finding out what they’re really capable of, even if that means paying subsequent taxes or avoiding some of their more destructive tendencies.

1. Reaves is slightly more complicated depending on how into the weeds you want to get. He could be offered an Arenas Rule contract that could balloon up to a net worth of $90 million. The most he can make in a straight up negotiation is around $11 million and some change. If he’s offered a poison pill contract that the Lakers decide to smooth out, his value could sit anywhere from that $11 million number to as high as almost $20. For simplicity’s sake, let’s just keep him $11 million and work from there.