Lakers - Nuggets Series Preview: If Denver wins, it's because Nikola Jokic is just that good
The Lakers and Nuggets are painfully close, so it basically comes down to which star outperforms his counterpart.
I would normally love to write some flowing, lengthy preview as we head into a rematch of the Bubble Conference Finals. It would be really nice to piece together a thousand words or so that all lead directly to the next graf and leave you wanting more. But this series is just too chaotic. Every time I have a thought, I find its counter shortly thereafter.
Sorry, but we’re doing the notes thing.
Nikola Jokic vs. Anthony Davis
Point: At first glance, this would seem to favor the Lakers. If AD can at all minimize Jokic’s impact, Denver doesn’t have the secondary pieces to make up for that lack of production. Davis has found ways to seriously mess with both Memphis’ and Golden State’s offense because he’s just that special defensively and he at least theoretically has the tools to guard Jokic one-on-one without the Lakers needing to send help.1
Counterpoint: If Jokic is able to figure out Davis in any way at all, this series is over, and quickly. The Lakers’ identity these playoffs has been that they get enough offense and build on the chaos Davis creates on the defensive end. If that goes away, this miraculous playoff run ends pretty unceremoniously.
The Takeaway: Good God I love this matchup. Davis and Jokic are dominant center yin and yang. Davis disrupts everything by merely being a pterodactyl in the paint and working out from there. Jokic’s ability to hit impossible, back-breaking shots or shred basically any defense by relentlessly finding and picking at scabs is just so damn wearing over the course of a series. I have no idea how this is going to play out and it’s why I legitimately don’t know who to pick here.
LeBron James
Point: James not needing to be the best player in two series the Lakers won going away is equally fascinating and off-putting. That shouldn’t be the case. He’s always the engine and/or rudder. Austin Reaves has been a cool story but it was also nice to see James have one of those classic closeout games as he forced the Warriors to take turns being stuffed in their locker. So the fact that the Lakers have been able to win with James picking his spots should be something that gives you a bunch of confidence in what they’re doing.
Counterpoint: Well, the flipside to LeBron “picking his spots” is that his body is forcing those spots to be chosen. Game six against the Warriors was the best James as looked all playoffs, but before then, even in games that called for him to dominate that way, he had to defer quite a bit more than we’d like to acknowledge — or take those maddening pull-up jumpers no one is actually all that comfortable with. If LeBron still isn’t quite 100% and he slips to the fourth best player in this series, I don’t like the Lakers’ chances.
The Takeaway: Honestly, no idea. We’re in uncharted territory here because James is playing at this level at this age and the Lakers have been this successful in the playoffs nonetheless. I want to say that he winds up figuring out a way to be a top-three player in this series because he’s still a genius even as his body hasn’t allowed him to physically dominate but there just isn’t much we’ve seen in these playoffs to definitively back that hope up.
Denver’s Wings
Point: Defensively, Aaron Gordon is a combination of Dillon Brooks and Andrew Wiggins. He has better footspeed than anyone James saw from Memphis and is far more physically imposing than Wiggins. No one truly shuts down Kevin Durant but the work Gordon put in throughout that series was unbelievable. Offensively, Michael Porter Jr. is one of the absolute best spot-up shooters in the league and the Nuggets are basically unbeatable when he has it going. He’s also pretty underrated defensively which makes that combination all the more terrifying.
Counterpoint: Even given my concerns about James, it’s just hard to believe any team would get better wing play from start to finish of a series than his team will — and that’s not counting how nice it’ll be to get Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt more involved because Denver doesn’t have shooters they aren’t equipped to chase around.
The Takeaway: Again, analytically speaking, Denver might have a very real advantage at this position over James and the rest of the Lakers’ wings. But I dare you to say that out loud with any confidence whatsoever.
Guard Play
Point: Denver’s guards are a pretty brutal combination of physical, athletic, and just generally tough. They’re basically all the antithesis of Jordan Poole, who was borderline unplayable by the end of that second round. Murray can be devastating in the pick-and-roll. KCP is, well, we saw what he was capable of during that championship run. He’s been exactly what Denver hoped he’d be when they traded for him. Brown is really effing good defensively and can go off to really put games out of reach.
Counterpoint: Time and time and time again, the Lakers’ group of unproven guards have gotten either just or more than enough to get the Lakers across the finish line. Whether it was a few Russell threes to get him going, Reaves handling the pick-and-roll way beyond his years, Schröder doggedly competing on either side of the ball, or some combination thereof, the Lakers have gotten significantly better guard-play than they ever could’ve realistically hoped for. Oh, and that’s before we even mention the series Lonnie Walker IV just had.
The Takeaway: Honestly, this is the big swing spot. Murray has a propensity to shoot his team out of spots, but so does Russell. Pope has had stretches this year where he’s gone cold and it’s really hurt what Denver’s tried to do. But even with that said, on paper, Denver’s guard rotation feels like the biggest advantage in the series. Maybe we see the Lakers find a way to remain competitive here because Davis (and Vanderbilt for that matter) is good enough to also impact what Denver can do on the perimeter, but this has to be where Nuggets fans feel as confident as they can.
Honestly, I could keep going. By the time game one finally and mercifully tips, we’ll have had more than 72 hours to go through every iteration of any advantage one team might have over the other. Hell, even after I hit “publish” on this and it hits your inbox, you can bet your ass I’m going to think of some topic or matchup I wish I had written more about.
The good news is this is almost certainly going to be a long enough series to bring all that other shit up. The only two scenarios that would outright floor me would be either the Lakers or Nuggets sweeping. That’s it. Lakers in five? Sure. Nuggets in six? Yeah ok. Either team in seven? I mean yeah it’d cause a heart attack but ok.
All in all, I feel fairly similarly to how I did heading into round two. I thought Golden State was the better team but that the Lakers had a pathway to winning. Same here. My guess is the Lakers throw everything at Denver to win game one and follow the same script that worked in the previous two series.
As the Lakers were able to follow that script twice in a row and have yet to lose a game where they put forth the energy necessary, I’m going to keep that train rolling and bet on the Lakers to win in six at +350. If the Lakers win game one, Denver’s odds will arrive at a point where it’s probably a worthwhile hedge, too. My brain says Denver at some point but my heart says Lakers in six. My heart beat my brain last series so I guess I’ll let it ride.
There’s a big difference here between the Lakers choosing to occasionally send help and them desperately needing to. Teams absolutely having to send doubles for whoever is guarding Jokic plays into what he’s best at. If the Lakers send extra help, it’ll be on their terms and I can’t exaggerate how important that is for what they’re tasked with defensively.