Early predictions on Lakers' free agents

The Lakers have a few directions they can go in but it all starts with decisions they make on the guys who helped turn this season around.

Playing well for the Los Angeles Lakers in a contract year is one of the absolute surest pathways to big paydays in sports. Resuscitating what was once considered an inevitable failure of a season to the tune of a Western Conference Finals appearance is going to get a bunch of guys paid. Will Rob Pelinka be able to keep that group together? Should he?

There is plenty of time to consider which direction the Lakers should go in this summer, but it all starts with what the markets that Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, D’Angelo Russell and the rest of this surprising group have earned for themselves. So let’s go free agent by free agent to make some way too early predictions on what those markets might look like.

Austin Reaves

Good lord what a season. What a story. Reaves bet on himself and told teams not to draft him late in the second round so he and his team could put “Him” in the best situation to showcase what he brings to the table. I remember being skeptical when the Lakers decided to give him his deal, thinking it was another step toward making that roster as cheap as possible while still employing LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook.¹

Fast forward a couple years of mostly agony and it turns out, the biggest win at this season’s trade deadline was moving Westbrook and unleashing Reaves. He should be considered the Lakers’ starting point guard next season, which means a sizable raise.

Reaves is a restricted free agent this summer, so the Lakers will be able to match any offer he brings in and, according to several reports and my own sourcing, the Lakers are prepared to do just that with any offer whatsoever. It remains to be seen to what degree leaking that might suppress Reaves’ market but from what I’m hearing initially, it’s working. He could get an offer upwards of $96 million, but it’s feeling fairly unlikely at this point.

In all likelihood, Reaves is back in L.A. on a four-year deal worth $56 million.

I will add that Reaves has successfully bet on himself before and could technically do so again this year. He could take a short-term deal in that $11-ish million range to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. I don’t consider it all that likely because most free agents in Reaves’ situation prefer to have at least one decent sized contract under their belt before taking such risk, but I also don’t think this approach is off the table altogether given how below market value that four-year deal would be.

Prediction: Reaves is re-signed to his maximum four year, ~$56 million deal.

Rui Hachimura

By the end of the playoffs, Hachimura solidified himself as the Lakers’ fourth-best player and made a pretty indisputable case that he can grow into one of those vital three-and-d wings every single playoff team needs. It was a stellar step forward with plenty of room to continue to grow.

Like Reaves, Hachimura is a restricted free agent. He just wrapped up his rookie deal and enters his age 25 season with a qualifying offer of $7.7 million. A starting wing on a playoff team is worth their weight in gold, so I’d anticipate the Lakers matching any reasonable offer, if it even gets that far.

Unlike Reaves, the Lakers have a lot more flexibility in terms of the offer they can make Hachimura. According to Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports, Hachimura’s team was looking for a deal from Washington in the four-year $60 million range. Honestly, that seems perfectly reasonable, if not below market value given what we saw from him in these playoffs. I’d be willing to go as high as $20 million per year for Rui, as it feels like he just scratched the surface this season. Regardless, he isn’t going anywhere, from what I’m hearing.

Prediction: Hachimura sticks around on a four-year deal worth around $70 million.

D’Angelo Russell

Man. This one is complicated.

On one hand, Russell is essentially the Lakers’ ceiling setter in that when he plays well, they’re damn near unbeatable. The problem, however, is in the other hand, as he played well fairly sparingly in this year’s playoffs and never did so in the conference finals.

Russell was also overpaid this year, given his production. It’s fair to wonder if an open market would have landed him the $30 million he made this season or if that was just a product of Golden State not wanting to lose Kevin Durant for nothing when he decided to go to Brooklyn.

Russell is reportedly anticipating a deal in that same ballpark as his team surely knows the Lakers can’t afford to lose him for nothing if they’re going to keep Hachimura and operate over the salary cap. It’s the weird situation where both sides reluctantly need each other. Or, in “Succession” terms:

So, somewhat begrudgingly, the Lakers and Russell will enter negotiations on what will likely be a short-term, high-ish money deal. If Russell plays well (and often — remember, he was fairly unavailable down the stretch of the season when the Lakers were vying for the playoffs, too), then this partnership will continue and the Lakers will be a really, really good team. If not, then my guess is the Lakers use that short-term deal to bring someone in his salary range they feel more confident in being able to help deep into the postseason.

Prediction: Russell re-signs with the Lakers on a two-year deal worth $50-ish million. The second year of that deal will either be a team option of partially guaranteed so that he would essentially be an expiring contract at the trade deadline if he isn’t signed-and-traded this summer.

Dennis Schröder

Redemption, thy name is Schröder.

Throughout the season, Schröder was a personal favorite of Darvin Ham’s. He competes his ass off on defense, doesn’t shrink from the moment and, when Russell faltered later in the postseason, he most often stepped up as the fifth player in the Lakers’ most-trusted lineups. He thoroughly outperformed the one year deal at the veteran’s minimum and will be looking for a fairly sizable raise this summer.

Issue is: His shooting woes and slow release also hurt the Lakers and he was a part of those lineups mostly because someone had to be. When he was out there, he had the ball in his hands because he can’t space the floor, which meant the ball wasn’t in James’ or Reaves’ hands and the offense tended to stall out.

The Lakers can dip into their midlevel exception money to give him a raise, but honestly, I wouldn’t. Reaves and Russell are already going to account for a big chunk of L.A.’s cap and I’d prefer a backup point guard who I’d feel more comfortable with alongside Reaves and James than I do with Schröder.

I kind of hope he gets a bigger offer than the Lakers are comfortable with so that he recoups more of that extension money he infamously turned down and the Lakers find a backup guard who more comfortably fits what they need at backup point. Worst case scenario would actually be the Lakers paying him to be their starting point guard next year and him taking critical reps from Reaves for an entire season. Please don’t do this to us, Lakers. Please.

Prediction: Schröder is back on a fairly team-friendly ($6-ish million) deal and starts at point. He was just too popular with the coaching staff and it’s really rare to see a veteran’s minimum type player jump into the eight-figure range in just one season. Hope I’m wrong though.

Lonnie Walker IV

Walker is kind of a tricky one. To be completely honest, if I had to choose between him and Schröder coming back, I’d prefer Walker. He’s more of a threat offensively and has the physical tools Phil Handy can continue to mold into a winning player.

We all saw what he brought to the table as he went from a seat in the doghouse to playing a crucial role as the Lakers knocked off Golden State. They don’t win that series without his contributions. That said, we can’t ignore what put him in the doghouse in the first place, either. He can be inconsistent because of poor shot selection and his engagement level defensively wanes. But as a backup combo guard, you can live with those things.

He’ll be coming off a ~$6.5 million deal this summer and will almost certainly sign another contract in that same range, which does make it hard for the Lakers to bring him back. It’s because of that, I think he’s most likely gone.

Prediction: Walker signs a two- or three-year deal in that same $7ish million ballpark, unfortunately, with a different team. Wish him all the best, though.

Malik Beasley

Chances are, Beasley is standing somewhere right now, his hand aloft, still holding that follow-through from a shot he took a couple minutes prior.

I joke, but it was a fairly disappointing tenure for Beasley, as he became the latest victim of that super weird trend where the Lakers bring in shooters only to watch their capabilities from deep eventually fall off a cliff; though, in fairness, Beasley’s shooting from deep has been in steady decline for the last few seasons.

Fairly quickly in these playoffs, Beasley found himself catching DNP-CDs. He was brutal to watch, as he struggled to shoot and remained disastrous on defense.

Beasley has a team option at $16.5 million. It’s ok value given what he can do in the regular season, but until he starts taking defense even kind of seriously or does more on offense to contribute when his shot isn’t falling, he’s going to struggle in higher-stakes games. Maybe some more time with the Lakers’ development staff figures some of that out, but he’s entering his age 27 season and it’s far more likely he just is who he is, at this point.

Still, as with Russell, the Lakers need to keep their salary slots open here and an expiring contract in the teens is hugely valuable at the trade deadline.

Prediction: The Lakers pick up his team option this summer but wind up flipping him.

Mo Bamba

Quite unfortunately for Bamba, he got hurt right during the time when he would’ve made a case for himself to play in this postseason. Also unfortunately for Bamba, his $10.3 million contract next season is not guaranteed, so becomes hugely valuable this offseason as salary filler in some kind of trade to help another team cut costs.

I’m going to be completely honest, I’m not a fan of Bamba’s game. He just doesn’t have a the motor to keep up with modern basketball and what he brings to the table right now is mostly theoretical, rather than actually practical production. It was already pretty telling last summer that Orlando renounced him and the market was so uninspiring he remained a member of the Magic nonetheless.

Maybe things go a little differently if he doesn’t get hurt, but based on his career to this point, it’s hard to se him helping much in any of the matchups outside of super short stretches. From what I’m hearing, his time as a Laker is short.

Prediction: Bamba is packaged this summer with draft capital to a team who would eventually waive him before his contract guarantee date.

(Just throwing this out there, but his contract matches perfectly with, say, Alex Caruso’s. You know, if you’re into that kind of thing.)

Troy Brown Jr.

This season played out essentially as you would have expected for a veteran minimum player like Brown. At times, he looked great as a three-ish and d-ish wing capable of spacing the floor. Then, at others (throughout the playoffs, for example), he was unplayable. Still, I really think something is there and I’d love to see him back. He’s somehow only 23 right now. What?!

Brown is a low usage offensive player who competes on defense. If the Lakers can retain him on a deal around that vet min, perfect. He’s definitely a rotation player during the regular season and makes so little money that if he doesn’t play in the postseason, it doesn’t hurt — unlike Beasley and Russell, who made a combined $36 million to sit on the sidelines. You can’t have that much fat on your cap sheet and compete at the highest levels of the sport.

As with Schröder, the Lakers can dip into their midlevel exception money to bring him back and I sincerely hope they do.

Prediction: Brown is brought back on a two-year deal (team option for the second) worth $5ish million.

Wenyen Gabriel

Gabriel is basically the polar opposite to Bamba. He has an incredible motor but lacks the physical tools to compete at the highest levels. Still, he understands his role with the Lakers and did have his moments throughout the year. It also needs to be acknowledged, though, that there wasn’t a matchup in these playoffs Ham felt comfortable with Gabriel out there, so that makes it tough to identify a role for him next season.

Interestingly, Gabriel showcased some touch from deep (although extremely sparsely). If he wants to stick around in the league, he’ll have to improve on that. If he does so with the Lakers, I’d be over the moon. I legitimately enjoy watching him play and hope he’s back.

Gabriel made the minimum this season and will likely do so again next year, hopefully with the Lakers.

Prediction: Later in the offseason, Gabriel re-signs on the minimum.

Scotty Pippen Jr., Cole Swider

Pippen and Swider made up the Lakers’ two-way contracts this season. I would imagine the Lakers would be interested in bringing them back in some similar capacity next season but we also know they’re great at finding value throughout the draft so this isn’t a sure thing.

The Lakers are pretty set at point, so that makes it somewhat tough on Pippen but Swider is a bigger body who can shoot, so if I had to choose one over the other, I guess I’d see what you have on Swider. But I’m not desperate to keep either.

Prediction: I dunno. How are you still reading this?

Final Takeaway

The Lakers need to get bigger/more physical on the perimeter this year. They can’t afford to have as much money sitting on their sidelines as they did deep into these playoffs. Pelinka might also look to find a big who can better spell (or even play alongside) Davis next year, too.

There’s definitely a ton to work with here. Even if this group comes back mostly intact, the Lakers would enter next season a top-five-to-10 team in the league. Given where they started last year, that’s a pretty major upgrade with all kind of options to tweak things from there.

1. They had just let Alex Caruso walk for nothing, ok, I had my reasons.