Ranking Western Conference playoff threats

The west is a mess this year and that should mean the Lakers might have a path to the finals, but they've been just as messy as anyone.

Throughout the Western Conference, there are all kinds of teams where, if you squint and the light is just right, you might be able to see a legitimate title contender. Problem is: the light keeps shifting and more often than not, I have a rogue piece of dust in my eye.

So, with a couple games left in this regular season, what better time to take a look around the conference and figure out which teams I’d prefer to see, or avoid, if at all possible? Initially, I was going to do just the teams the Lakers might see in the first round, but given how random the west has been all year, I wanted to have a little fun with the whole field.

In order of teams I’d most like to see.

Tier 1: Zero Concern Whatsoever

Dallas Mavericks, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans

Dallas:

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are on their last desperate legs to even get into the play-in. It’s been an unmitigated disaster since Irving was brought in for what little perimeter defense and athleticism Dallas once had. They can’t keep anyone out of the paint and don’t have great rim protection once anyone gets there. That doesn’t exactly sound great against a team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Yes, Doncic and Irving are pretty terrifying as a concept but in practice, the defense could only be worse if they were actively helping teams score.

Minnesota:

Another team that made a big splash acquisition that just hasn’t paid off. Rudy Gobert’s playoff track record isn’t exactly stellar and his fit with Karl-Anthony Towns has been so iffy that Wolves fans are already wondering if Towns should be traded this summer.

Minnesota has some wing defense who could make life somewhat difficult on James and size up front that might slow Davis, but Gobert has been played off the court far too often to really be concerned about him and Jalen McDaniels lacks playoff experience. Here’s a quick preview of how I think this would play out:

New Orleans:

Man, what a bummer of a season for New Orleans. At one point, it looked like they might secure a playoff spot and also have a real shot at Victor Wembanyama by way of the Lakers’ draft pick. Now, they sit behind the Lakers in the standings, probably won’t receive their pick, and we legitimately have no idea if or when we’ll see Zion Williamson play again.

Without Williamson, New Orleans really don’t present much of a threat. Yes, Brandon Ingram is playing great ball right now, but he just doesn’t have enough help to keep up with how the Lakers can score.

Tier 2: Frauds

Memphis Grizzlies

You know how I said sometimes there’s just too much going on in relation to Golden State? Memphis is dealing with a new round of unnerving stories about Ja Morant. Steven Adams hasn’t played in more than a couple months. Brandon Clarke is out. Dillon Brooks is annoying in a bad way where you’re always nervous he’s going to piss off the wrong guy.

Memphis is on a weird track here where either they calm down and realize it is actually pretty tough to win in the NBA or we wind up looking back on them as a super talented group that never grew up. We’ll see how it turns out.

For the Lakers specifically, what a nightmare matchup. They don’t have any size on the wing to deal with James and Jaren Jackson Jr. is somehow already in foul trouble. Lakers in three.

Tier 3: I mean I guess they make me a little nervous?

Oklahoma City Thunder, Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors

OKC:

Honestly, this is all Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s been incredible this year and is a particularly tough matchup for the Lakers. He’d eviscerate either D’Angelo Russell or Austin Reaves at the start of games (though I think Jarred Vanderbilt would get the nod here). He’s too big for Dennis Schröder, too, if that’s also what you’re thinking.

They’re also young enough to not really feel the weight of the moment, which is always scary in a single-game setting. But at the end of the day, the Lakers have so much experience that I’d pretty comfortably take them in such a scenario.

Sacramento:

So, this is tough. They’ve been my absolute favorite team to watch this season. They score in waves. They don’t defend. De’Aaron Fox is a bad matchup for all the same reasons I’m nervous about SGA. Breaking that 16-year drought was an incredible moment for a city that fought hard for its team.

But, uh, did I mention their defense?

Harrison Barnes is their only chance against James. Sabonis might get swallowed up by Davis. And if the Lakers win that first game in Sacramento, the series might be a short one.

Golden State:

People always seem to roll their eyes at the thought of the Lakers going on a run this year but Golden State has had just as frustrating a season, can’t win on the road, and no one has any idea whatsoever what kind of shape Andrew Wiggins is going to be in. Yet somehow we’re supposed to be terrified of them now? It doesn’t track.

Yes, they’re the champs and that core three of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson haven’t lost a series in which they’ve played every game during the Steve Kerr era. But at some point you do reach a point where there’s just too much going on. Maybe they go on a run to end this era on a high note, but that usually isn’t how those things end, and this has all the feelings of a rock band wrapping things up.

In terms of matchup with the Lakers, Curry does present issues with Ham’s preference of drop coverage. Green does play Davis better than anyone in the league. But I just don’t see them getting far enough to see the Lakers.

Tier 4: (Finally) Starting to get real

Denver Nuggets

Look. They’ve been the best team in the conference all season. Nikola Jokic could very well wrap up his third straight MVP season. With a fairly healthy Jamal Murray, Jokic will finally have a playoffs with his second best player. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon around Murray and Jokic makes up quite possibly the best lineup in the history of the Nuggets franchise.

And yet… Doesn’t it feel like the Lakers have a weird mental edge here? Davis plays Jokic incredibly well. Denver feels pretty thin beyond Gordon on the wing to try to deal with James. The last time we saw these teams in a playoff setting, the Lakers won in five. A lot has obviously changed, but it’s hard to wipe that from my mind.

I do think the Nuggets would be betting favorites in the series and should be favored, but I really feel like I should be more nervous about this matchup.

Tier 5: Yeah… try to avoid them if possible

Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns

Los Angeles:

Look, I get it. It’s the Clippers. Paul George has some hilarious playoff blunders. The whole franchise just seems cursed. Turns out, spotlights > street lights.

But man… Kawhi Leonard looks healthy. Outside of maybe Kevin Durant, he scares me more than any other individual player in the conference. He and George will make James work harder than any other set of wings in the west. Zubac for whatever weird reason tends to play Davis well (and that’s not even counting the mental advantage Ty Lue has on him). It’s just a bad matchup, as evidenced by the 157 straight wins the Clippers have against the Lakers.

There are still questions. I don’t know how the rotation would get cut down. Lue has been overly-reliant on Marcus Morris Sr. throughout the year. Russell Westbrook in a playoff setting can go in all kinds of directions but hasn’t been a particularly positive experience the last few years.

But I’d rather some other team answer these questions, thanks.

Phoenix:

Kevin Durant is really fucking good. Sure, yeah, Chris Paul is going to mess things up at some point and they’re insanely thin having moved Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson for Durant and Jae Crowder whined his way out of town.

But again, Kevin. Effing. Durant.

All in all…

The Lakers could do anything from getting knocked out in the play-in to a miraculous run all the way to a finals series. Not a single thing could surprise me. Yeah, I talked all kinds of shit in the grafs above, but any of those teams could knock just about any other team off and I’d kind of shrug and say, sure. Why not. Oh, no. I can’t end this that way.