Lakers might actually have a depth "problem"
After years of having to extend their rotation, heading into the play-in and playoffs, the Lakers will have to trim theirs down.
Throughout the Russell Westbrook era, fans found themselves squinting to find a rotation player here and there in the droves of veteran minimum contracts to maybe have nine guys they’d feel comfortable with in big spots. Not coincidentally, the concept of a playoff rotation never really mattered, as, well, you know.
Now, as the Lakers prepare for the play-in and hopefully playoffs, Darvin Ham has a relatively unique challenge ahead of him, compared to the end of his predecessor’s tenure: Trimming down a rotation.
To be absolutely clear, it isn’t fair at all to judge Ham’s macro-level decisions based on a sample size of the three games where he’s had all of his best five players. Yes, there always seem to be simple decisions to be made but that ignores the human ramifications and the one thing Ham can’t be criticized for is his management of the locker room. He’s maintained buy-in from his team despite a subpar roster, injuries, incessant trade rumors, actual trades and any other factors that could very well have derailed the season from that standpoint.
That doesn’t stop internet weirdos from sending tweets like these:
Jeez, man. What a dweeb.
Thus far, the Lakers are 4-0 in games where LeBron James, Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves and Jarred Vanderbilt play. That makes up what will likely be his best lineup and the group he’ll call on in the biggest moments of games. Given the roster shakeup and the injuries that followed, it’s a small miracle we can identify this already.
From there, though, Ham still has Dennis Schröder, Malik Beasley, Troy Brown, Wenyen Gabriel, Lonnie Walker IV, Rui Hachimura and Mo Bamba as guys to choose from to fill out the rest of the rotation. That’s seven extra players for likely, three, maybe four spots in an eight- or nine-man playoff rotation.
While it’s great to have a five-man lineup as great as their current starting five is (and when healthy, Russell, Reaves, James, Vanderbilt and Davis is one of the better groups in the league — small sample sizes notwithstanding), the disparity showcased Wednesday in Chicago was startling to say the least, especially with Ham insisting on utilizing full-bench units for as long as he was.
Look at the plus/minus numbers from a game the Lakers won fairly handily:
Plus-minus — especially from a single game — is obviously a flawed stat but when it’s this stark, it’s pretty hard to ignore.
In each half, the starting group built a lead only to watch it immediately diminish once they sat, and that’s against a Bulls team that isn’t anywhere near as good as some of the teams the Lakers will face either in the play-in, let alone if they win and face a top Western Conference seed.
So, how does Ham find a fix here? Well, there are two options, basically:
Send a starter to the bench.
Shorten the rotation.
If we were having this discussion in, say, January, or even February after the deadline with a fully healthy roster and 20-plus games to go, then the first option would make some sense. Reaves is a natural secondary creator and as such, moving him to the bench to bring either Beasley or Brown into the starting group would be feasible. Problem is: I’m writing this with six games to go in the regular season. Welp.
So Ham’s only real choice here is to start trimming down the rotation in preparation for higher stakes games.
We’ve already seen Walker’s minutes diminish and because of his injury, it’s hard to see Bamba as anything more than a backup center for teams with larger bigs Gabriel can’t deal with. Davis’ minutes are also going to increase in the playoffs and James has played center with some success in the past so Bamba likely won’t figure into the rotation much, if at all.
From here, you have five guys who might feel like they deserve minutes (Schröder, Beasley, Brown, Hachimura and Gabriel). Schröder is definitely getting minutes as a point-of-attack defender against smaller guards and the engine of the second unit. Gabriel will probably get the 10 minutes or so that Davis isn’t on the court. Brown and Beasley will fight it out for minutes because of their abilities to shoot and Hachimura will get looks depending on the matchup.
I also know this is probably a little controversial because of how he’s played of late, but I don’t think you can give up on Beasley. For one thing, his reputation as a shooter still provides much-needed gravity and for another, he’s just too talented to not be given a shot in bigger games.
When will we see these changes? Well, that’s the fascinating question.
On one hand, you want to get James and Davis as much rest as you can before what will be a grueling playoff run (hopefully). On the other, you do need some kind of dress rehearsal to see what the playoff rotation might look like, so the sooner Ham can implement all this, the better.
Ideally, you roll with a shorter rotation for the next few games and do enough winning that your spot is solidified with the last couple games to go. But let’s say the Lakers continue to get enough help around the league that they can make a run at the six seed and avoid the play-in altogether. In such a case, would Ham gamble on a couple extra games of a shorter rotation to be able to avoid playing an extra playoff game, let alone two? I’d certainly hope so.
At the end of the day, the idea of having too many rotation players is significantly better than the alternative. Because that is what the Lakers are dealing with, they will play a significantly larger role in April, May and maybe even June. But in order for that to happen, Ham is going to have to make some tough decisions, and quickly. Good problems to have are still problems.
Problem with rotation shortening right now is really health. Lakers are going to want to try to keep AD and LeBron as healthy as possible by limiting minutes on the floor which unfortunately retains the potential of a larger rotation. Also having everyone back minus Bamba means Ham can see with this group what pieces fit in what games are left.
I agree on not giving up on Beasley, especially with the personal issues he's got going on right now. This is one of those times I wish Kobe was around, he could get into Beas ear about the court being a safe space where he can put everything aside for the time he's out there. Becomes an outlet.
Agreed on it being time to shorten the rotation. Players that get left out now will have the off-season to get back into the fold if they're retained