A few theories on the LeBron James retirement talk

We've been doing this for 20 years. LeBron James doesn't say anything without considering its ramifications.

Let me take you back to a nicer time. A kinder time. A time where we could collectively sit back and, sure, commiserate on the 2022-’23 season ending, but also marvel at how far the Lakers came and, more importantly, legitimately look forward to an offseason where they can build on this momentum. Ah, what a time.

Not even an hour or so later, the internet was ablaze because LeBron James brought his trusty blowtorch with him to the postgame podium.

Then, a short while after he walked off that podium, he apparently spoke to Dave McNenamin of ESPN about those comments:

Following the news conference, ESPN asked James to elaborate on his statement.

When you say you got to think about stuff, what thread should we be pulling on that?

"If I want to continue to play," James said.

As in next year?

"Yeah."

You would walk away?

"I got to think about it."

When James does something like this, he knows we’re all going to immediately start jumping to conclusions and linking any breadcrumbs he may have dropped that might preview what’s coming next. We do this because, well, he drops breadcrumbs. He never speaks without understanding how people are going to react to those statements.

So, without further ado, let’s do some jumping. In my estimation, there are a few ways to read James’ own statement and the reporting that followed:

James is actually just tired

Honestly, same.

James had just played 47 minutes and 55 seconds of a Western Conference Finals game and lost his fourth straight to a Denver team he had beaten fairly soundly a couple years ago. Over the course of that series, it became clear that he’d have to spend some time guarding two-time MVP, Nikola Jokic, playing at his absolute peak, too, and still have enough fumes to hopefully attack the basket down the stretches of games.

On top of that, James is looking ahead to potential (if not likely) foot surgery and the rehab from it to hopefully be ready in time for his 21st training camp. He hasn’t played in the 65 games necessary to qualify for end-of-season awards in four of his five seasons in L.A. Of course James was exhausted. His body is sending some pretty clear signals that his time is running short and he might just want to retire before his game starts slipping visibly.

If this is the case, and he still intends to play with Bronny whenever he gets drafted James could very well retire this postseason, rest up this year and fully heal his body for one last campaign in the 2024 season playing alongside his son. It’s not completely out of the question. Sure, he’d forego almost $100 million in salary, but he’s a billionaire now with all kinds of revenue sources beyond basketball. If his top priority is being fully healthy if or when the opportunity to play with Bronny presents itself, then there is a path to that outcome.

In all likelihood in this scenario, he was just exhausted and disappointed and lashed out as such.

He wants more help

On one hand, the Lakers were able to miraculously turn their season around and go from 2-10 to four wins from the finals. On the other, and as he said, he doesn’t care about getting close to the finals. They are going to happen in a week or and he isn’t going to be participating, again.

If I’m going to mock Giannis Antetokounmpo for his definition of failure, then I also have to credit LeBron for clearly stating that he expects more from himself and the organization he plays for. We might have loved the turnaround, shutting up the two-seed Memphis Grizzlies and knocking off the reigning champion Golden State Warriors, but that clearly wasn’t enough for James — and I can honestly respect that.

So from his standpoint, he looks around at the likes of D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt, sees two of those three not play in that deciding game and the third getting a demotion right before the game, and can’t help but wonder if he could’ve gotten closer with even just a couple more guys Darvin Ham could trust.

LeBron James, he’s just like us.

Chances are, given the way stars see the game, James is also looking at avenues for the Lakers to get another star. Kyrie Irving and Trae Young both attended a couple games during this playoff run. He probably thinks either the guy he won a championship with and one of the cornerstones of Klutch Sports would probably help. We might disagree (and I do, given what it’ll likely cost to get either Young or Irving), but that’s just how NBA superstars tend to think.

So if you’re LeBron, and you just played all but five seconds of an elimination game, and you want to make absolutely sure that a front office that has balked at using draft capital in the past does so this time around, maybe just float how seriously you’re thinking about your future in the league — and how that front office should consider what their future without you looks like.

Does James’ future lie outside Los Angeles?

Beyond the scenario I laid out earlier in which he takes a year off as he waits for Bronny to get drafted, at some point, James’ Lakers tenure is going to end.

We may not want to consider it, but James could also be looking around — and specifically at the superstar next to him — and wondering if it can feasibly get better than this postseason run and if not, whether it makes sense to pursue another championship somewhere else. We have to acknowledge that possibility.

Anthony Davis played fewer minutes and scored just over half as many points as James did in that elimination game that preceded these comments. For the vast majority of that game, Davis floated on offense and didn’t impact the game enough defensively to make up for that. For years now, James has been hoping Davis would take that baton from him as their partnership moves into its final chapter.

For two series this postseason, we saw what that might look like. Davis was the best player against Memphis and again as they potentially ended Golden' State’s dynasty. It’s not coincidence the Lakers won both those series handily. In this third, though, Davis was thoroughly outplayed by Jokic. With the season on the line and Jokic in foul trouble, Davis continued to float, and it was on James to try to attack rather than Davis, who has all the tools to be able to.

Next year, the path to the finals is once again going to go through Denver and Jokic is going to be waiting as the league’s best player. If James doesn’t think Davis is up for that challenge, would he consider playing for another team or with another star who is?

Speaking of Davis…

No matter what James’ decision is on his future, it couldn’t be clearer at this point that the Lakers’ approach of basically lining up Davis’ tenure with James has to continue. Davis is an incredible talent. He’s legitimately one of the most impactful players I have ever seen on the defensive side of the court. But, well, he ain’t that guy.

And look, few are. Being the face of a team capable of winning a championship is something like five people on the planet can claim with any legitimacy at any point. In terms of sheer talent, he is more than capable, but shrinking in the moment the way he did Monday night is going to be hard to forget.

I just couldn’t help wonder over the last however many hours whether some of what James was considering had to do with the guy he brought to Los Angeles. Davis has been in and out of the lineup perpetually, his shot has all but completely disappeared, he appears noticeably less athletic than when he got here, and again, on a night where LeBron played all but five seconds, Davis was more rested and looked nowhere near as fresh. That had to drive him insane. It was definitely brutal to watch from our perspective.

We talk about Davis like he’s some elder statesman who needs absolutely perfect settings to perform. Holding him to the impossible standard that is LeBron James is obviously unfair, but it’s also fair to want more from him than the Lakers have gotten the last couple years, so I can’t help but wonder how open to moving Davis James might be.

All that said, the path to continuing to compete for championships absolutely involves Davis trimming up, regaining some of the explosiveness that made him as special as he was during that title year and taking that baton James has been hoping to pass for years (plural) now.

So what does it all mean?

Honestly, and I know this is the most boring answer, I lean towards this being James responding to sheer exhaustion and looking ahead to that surgery and the corresponding rehab. We all felt exhausted after this rollercoaster of a season, right? So why wouldn’t we lend that same emotional space to the person at the very heart of it?

Everyone I’ve spoken to over the last 24 hours has echoed Rob Pelinka’s sentiment that the Lakers are looking forward to running back this core of James, Davis, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. There are a few tools they can use to improve on the margins, but from what I’m hearing, the Lakers want to see what this team can look like after a full summer and training camp together.

My guess is: James takes some time, drinks some Lobos, relaxes a bit in the offseason, has whatever he needs to have done on his foot, and in that time realizes that the Lakers can absolutely make a run at next season if they pull the right levers and get some steps forward from guys you’d expect to get some growth from.

Maybe I’m wrong and we’ll look back very differently on those comments once everything plays out, but just like all of us, James should just be allowed to rant after an exhausting day at work.